grasping at space



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  • Thursday, November 04, 2004

    Paulos' response

    Many thanks to Professor Paulos for his kind permission to post his response here.

    > Good question. As in any poll, there is a margin of error associated with any sample. Also there is some evidence that early voters were different than later ones. Women, who favored Kerry by a slight margin, more frequently vote early as do angry voters who want to get their vote in right away. In this election, more of the latter were probably Kerry supporters. The exit polls are conducted on the fly and are more useful for demographic analysis of the vote after the election. These and probably other provisos weren't known to people who emailed them to everyone they knew Tuesday afternoon contributing to the widspread belief that Kerry had won it. Alas, alas, not so.

    Given Paulos' explanation and what I know about the fundamentalist mentality, I'm confident that Bush did not win by fraud.


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